Making predictions about Fidel Castro and Cuba can be embarrassing.
Just ask Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer, who, in 1993 wrote a book on Castro with the least prophetic title imaginable: Castro's Final Hour: The Secret Story Behind the Coming Downfall of Communist Cuba. Ok, so he was off by just a few years.
But with the fiftieth anniversary of Castro's revolution behind us I think I can safely say that his days are numbered.
I'll even go out on a limb and predict that Friday, April 10, 2009 will be D-Day for Castro. "D" as in Dead!
Historically speaking he's already dead. The only thing left for him to do is....well....die.
Newspapers all over the world already have written his obituary.
All they need to do is put new top on their stories containing a few details like the time and date of his death and then start the presses!
But you don't have to wait that long.
Because much of what will happen on the day he dies is so predictable and on the off chance you might be really busy on April 10, here's a Random Pixels Exclusive! -- a look at first few paragraphs of the "Bearded One's" obit along with the Herald's front page the following day:
HAVANA - (AP) - Fidel Castro Ruz, the intractable and defiant leader of Cuba for nearly half a century, died peacefully in his sleep Friday according to a statement read on Cuban state radio. He was 82.So, there you have it. I might be off on the date of his death by a few months but I think I have everything else right.
The bearded lawyer-turned-rebel seized power in Cuba on Jan. 1, 1959, relinquishing it only after he fell ill in 2006.
Cuban television broadcast pictures of thousands of tearful Cuban citizens milling in the streets of Havana.
Meanwhile in Miami, tens of thousands of Cuban-Americans, many of who weren't even born when Castro came to power, took to the streets in noisy celebration.
Miami police shut down streets in many sections of Miami's Little Havana district including large stretches of famed Calle Ocho.
A police spokesman reported numerous traffic jams.
The spokesman also said his department had made about a dozen arrests including two television station live truck operators who got into an fight over a parking space at the Versailles Restaurant.
Because while much of what takes place in Cuba is so unpredictable (Andres Oppenheimer can vouch for that); a lot of what happens here in Miami is easy to predict.